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Comprehensive information about COVID-19 (updated 30/03/2020)

Created by Kamila Klavíková

Everything from the origin of the disease to the economic impact.

#coronavirus

Comprehensive information about COVID-19 (updated 30/03/2020)

How exponential growth works

This interactive map shows in real time the current information about the current Coronavirus cases. 

https://coronavirus.tghn.org/resources-dashboard/case-location-map/

How to handwash?

How to disinfect hands?

Pandemic

"A pandemic is when an epidemic spreads between countries," says David Jones, MD, PhD, a professor of the culture of medicine at Harvard University.

Due to a spread around the world, COVID-19 is certainly a pandemic. It was declared pandemic by WHO on 11th March 2020.

Clean your hands regularly

Regularly and thoroughly clean your hands with an alcohol-based hand rub or wash them with soap and water.

SARS

MERS

Practice respiratory hygiene

Make sure you, and the people around you, follow good respiratory hygiene. This means covering your mouth and nose with your bent elbow or tissue when you cough or sneeze. Then dispose of the used tissue immediately.

Cough-elbow

Avoid touching eyes, nose and mouth

Hands touch many surfaces and can pick up viruses. Once contaminated, hands can transfer the virus to your eyes, nose or mouth. From there, the virus can enter your body and can make you sick.

Influenza virus

Influenza virus is highly seasonal. It cannot be contained. The virus easily mutates. So vaccination against influenza is functional only for one season.

Unlike coronavirus it has a very short incubation period that ranges from 1 to 4 days (WHO).

Usually causing common cold

Coronaviruses are believed to cause 15-30 % of common cold.

Many strains of Coronaviruses

There are many strains of coronaviruses. Most of them are almost harmless. There were previous pandemics of SARS and MERS caused by similar viruses.

Discussion of recent development

Droplets

The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.

These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.

640px-Sneeze

Basic protective measures

Maintain social distancing

Maintain at least 1 metre (3 feet) distance between yourself and anyone who is coughing or sneezing.

COVID-19 is not a normal flu

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“Current coronavirus”

Strain of coronavirus that causes COVID-19 is called SARS-COV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2). It is not the same virus that caused SARS epidemy in 2002.

Definition

An incubation period is the time between being exposed to a germ and having symptoms of the illness.

Incubation period

It is not clear. Period can vary greatly among patients. It could be as long as 27 days.

Current official estimates suggest that symptoms of COVID-19 usually appear around 5 days on average, but the incubation period may be as short as 2 days to as long as 14 days. (Harvard)

However, there were 3 cases  with an incubation period of 19, 24 and 27 days. But it is posible that this could reflect a second exposure rather than long incubation period. (Worldmeter)

Spreading

It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.

Recent study estimates that 86% of cases are undocumented, which might help in gaining herd immunity faster. On the other hand, these cases caused 80% of all transmissions while being only 60% as contaigeous as people with symptoms: science.abb3221.full.pdf.

Shortage of durable food supply

Many people decided to increase their supply of durable food since they are worried of the future impact of COVID-19. Others say that this is just a panic.

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Transmission from animals

New types of viruses are often created by mixing an animal virus with normal coronavirus which mutates and becomes very dangerous.

Several known coronaviruses are circulating in animals that have not yet infected humans.

Viruses can infect human directly from animal or through an intermediate host.

COVID-19

Coronavirus Disease (2019)

How face masks work

Mapping of genome

Sequences from different patients can be compared and a tree of mutations may be constructed from the results. In souch tree branches represent the viruses that have common ancestor.

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In the graph above, the virus originates in the middle. As time progresses more and more mutations occure so the current version moves away from the center of the graph. The cases related to Wuhan are in purple. The sequences detected in the USA are red and orange. As we can see, every type of coronavirus has been detected in the USA unlike in China. It is not clear where the virus originated or how it spread to the rest of the world. There are cases outside of China which are not related to anyone in China, and there is a genetic evidence as well.

Updated tree at: https://nextstrain.org/ncov

Origin of COVID-19

Source: Discussion on quora.com and the referenced scientific paper Wen-Bin Yu, Guang-da Tang, Li Zhang, R. T. Corlett: Decoding evolution and transmissions of novel pneumonia coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) using the whole genomic data.

It is not clear where COVID-19 originated. But the massive outbreak began in Southern China Seafood Market in Wuhan. There is genetic evidence that the virus originated elsewhere and only a subset of all strains is linked to Wuhan.

WHO Information website

Information about Coronavirus on the website of World Health Organization

Economic impact

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How to wear facemask

US contains all five types

The US having all 5 types has 2 possibilities :

  1. By chance, all types were imported from different places.
  2. It originated in the US, hence having all the mutated types.

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China

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China road congestion

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Facemasks

5040B

Respirators

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Mutations and genetic analysis

Genetic analysis provides clues about the origin. A virus is a nucleic acid in protein coat. That nucleic acid is a “sequence of letters” (sequence of RNA building blocks) that serves as template for new viruses produced by a host cell. This process is not flawless. These flaws may change the character of the affected virus and may lead to new behaviour. Souch change is called mutation. Mutations are usually small, often changing just a “single letter”.

Worldwide distribution

Picture shows how Coronavirus spread from China via international travel.

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GILD, MRNA stocks up >20%

Gilead (GILD) and Moderna (MRNA) stock prices rise despite the market plumetting. Gilead is developing a candidate drug for the virus, based on work previously done for treating Ebola. This could allow Gilead to speed through the drug testing process. 

Sinks world stock markets

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China coal consumption at power plants

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Illustration of different scenerios of spreading

Scientific studies

Coronavirus outbreak changes how scientists communicate. Collaboration is much faster, data and pre-prints are quickly shared. An unprecedented progress on our understanding was done but still many mysteries remain. More information here.

ca 0228NID Coronavirus Biosafety Security Laboratory online

Are facemask effective agaist infection?

Different sources give different answers, from no effect at all to a small decrease in chance getting infected when used right. But facemasks also protect others from your potential infection. Ideally, everyone would be wearing them all the time. This is common in Asian countries but not in the western world.

Currently, there is a big shortage in supply is a big problem. This is especially dangerous for hospital and health organizations. Therefore hording masks can be more harmful for you since medical system might collapse.

Epidemiologist predicts effects of coronavirus in the months ahead

Number of publications

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Coronavirus outbreak knowledge hub

https://coronavirus.tghn.org

Practical Prevention Strategies

Not enough testing done, we are only seeing a tip of the iceberg

MedCram - Medical Lectures Explained CLEARLY

https://www.youtube.com/user/MEDCRAMvideos/

Every few days Roger Seheult, M.D. posts updates about coronavirus. Explanation is clear. You can find links to sources used in video in description under the video.

Why this helps

Herd immunity and reasons to slow down the virus

Update based on the recent development

Tomas Pueyo: Why You Must Act Now

One of the sources for the video.

Worldometer Coronavirus

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Snapshot from 21st of March 2020, ca. 11:30 a.m. GMT+1

Coronavirus-Worldometer-2020-03-21

Calculating actual COVID 19 cases

Google's Covid 19 page

https://www.google.com/covid19/

#StayTheFuckHome

 

With no well-studied treatment and a viable vaccine still being out at least another year, the only effective way to keep the coronavirus epidemic at bay is to give the virus less chances of spreading. The following list of actions, ordered from easiest to implement to most effective in the fight against the pandemic, should serve as a set of loose guidelines for people who wish to join the movement and take action, where the people in charge continue to neglect.

  1. Don't panic, but be alert.
  2. Wash your hands often and practice good cough and sneeze etiquette.
  3. Try to touch your face as little as possible, including your mouth, nose, and eyes.
  4. Practice social distancing, no hugs and kisses, no handshakes, no high fives. If you must, use safer alternatives.
  5. Do not attend concerts, stage plays, sporting events, or any other mass entertainment events.
  6. Refrain from visiting museums, exhibitions, movie theaters, night clubs, and other entertainment venues.
  7. Stay away from social gatherings and events, like club meetings, religious services, and private parties.
  8. Reduce your amount of travel to a minimum. Don't travel long distances if not absolutely necessary.
  9. Do not use public transportation if not absolutely necessary.
  10. If you can work from home, work from home. Urge your employer to allow remote work if needed.
  11. Replace as many social interactions as possilble with remote alternatives like phone calls or video chat.
  12. Do not leave your home if not absolutely necessary.

Please keep in mind there is no right or wrong amount of actions to take. Only take the actions that you feel comfortable with and that do not endanger your livelihood. Do not quit your job over this! However, keep in mind that every action helps.

https://staythefuckhome.com

Why is social distancing important

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca